Formitra

GB electricity demand forecasts.

View daily half-hour Formitra forecasts, and compare their performance against observed demand.

Forecast and access details

When are forecasts available, and what do they cover?

Formitra forecasts target publication by 07:30 Europe/London, one forecast per day. Earlier issues keep their recorded times. Results for different versions are kept separate. Each curve covers half-hour GB National Demand (ND) in MW from 23:00 that evening to 23:00 the following local day: 46, 48 or 50 periods across clock changes. Late or missing issues are identified explicitly.

What forecast does the dashboard show?

The Formitra forecast predicts GB National Demand (ND). The morning and later National Energy System Operator (NESO) ND forecasts are separate operator benchmarks. Forecasts are scored against Initial National Demand Outturn (INDO) as first observed, which is preliminary.

How should forecast intervals be read?

The 80% and 90% intervals describe uncertainty for each half-hour, rather than for the whole day. Actual coverage is reported alongside forecast errors.

How is performance evaluated?

Mean absolute error (MAE) measures average absolute error in MW. Performance results include the number of half-hours observed. Comparisons with NESO use the same half-hours for every model.

How is access controlled?

Sign in to the dashboard with your invited username or email and password. The read-only API uses a separate API key.